CHAPTER 6: Leveraging on Higher Interest Rates & Higher Inflation through Debt Mutual Funds

In the last few months, most of the major economies around the globe are witnessing interest rate hike cycle. The primary objective behind these rate hikes is to bring the inflation under control. Despite continuous rate hikes, some major economies, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, are still struggling to keep inflation within their tolerance levels .

When credit or loans are made available at a lower cost to individuals or large corporations, the money supply in the economy expands and the size of the economy begins to grow exponentially, resulting in inflation. Soon comes the time when this excess of cheap money starts to hurt the economy as prices of goods and services increase due to massive demand. This was our post-pandemic experience from 2021 to about May 2022. 

 To control inflation, one of the weapons central banks adopt is "tightening of monetary policy," which means increasing interest rates (the repo rate of the RBI). This raises the interest rate on credit or loans, reducing the availability of money in the economy and causing a gradual slowdown. This is what we have been experiencing since June 2022 to date, and despite the rate hike, inflation is still not under control and remain sticky.

Effect of Higher Interest Rates on Investors' Portfolios

When the repo rate of the RBI was around 4%, the bank FD rate was around 5.10% to 6%. Today, when the Repo Rate is 6.50%, banks are offering interest on fixed deposits of around 7% to 7.50%. Higher interest rates penalise the borrower (home loan or car loan buyer), but investors get a higher interest rate on their bank deposits or get higher yields in Debt Mutual Funds.

How Debt Fund are tax efficient than conventional FDs.

Gains earned from Bank Fixed Deposits are taxable as per the individual's tax slab, irrespective of the duration for which the FD was kept with the bank. On the other hand, the gains from debt mutual funds are subject to short-term and long-term capital gains. If debt mutual funds are redeemed after holding them for more than 36 months, then such long-term capital gains are taxed at 20% with the indexation benefit. Any gains made on redemption before 3 years are treated as short term capital gains and taxed as per an individual's tax slab.

What is indexation?

    Indexation is a method adopted to adjust the cost of an investment with respect to inflation and arrive at an inflation-adjusted taxable gain. Let us examine the tax efficiency of the FD vs. debt fund comparison for long-term investment using the table below. To arrive at an indexed value, the CII index (cost inflation index) is used, which is published on the income tax website.

    The CII Index for fiscal years 2023 and 20220 is 331 and 289, respectively. As a result, the value of one lakh after CII index adjustments is 1,14,532.87 = 1,00,000 * (331/289). Tax Rate of 20% is assumed for the calculation.

       From the above calculation, it is evident that post-tax gains above 3 years in debt mutual funds are higher than Banks Fixed Deposits. Tax liability on gains from fixed deposits is Rs. 4,500.86, whereas for the same rate of interest and same time frame, tax liability arising from gains made from debt mutual funds is just Rs. 1,590.29.

    In a higher interest rate scenario and a higher inflation period, investors in debt funds are likely to gain better returns than Banks Fixed Deposits due to higher yields as well as better post-tax returns on the expected higher CII index (which is linked to the inflation rate).

       However, debt funds are sensitive to interest rate movements and the creditworthiness of assets. It is strongly advised to consult an expert rather than rely solely on past performance while selecting the best suitable fund to maximize yield. 

Note: All calculations, opinions, and views expressed in the content belong solely to the author. Information should only be used for research purposes and not to make investment decisions.
Ajinkya Patil : investwithvantage@gmail.com

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